Visible Alpha

Visible Alpha broker models via S&P Xpressfeed · 4 brokers · 319 line items · freshest revision 2026-06-09.

Broker Models

Broker models see Copart's revenue stalling in FY-2026 — essentially flat — before reaccelerating about 5% in FY-2027 and 7% in FY-2028. The lift is international: overseas service revenue compounds near 10% a year while the US line barely grows. FY-2026's pause was volume, not price — roughly 6% fewer cars, offset by higher revenue per car. Service auctions still throw off almost all the profit. Read all of this as a thin panel: at most four brokers, and the unit detail rests on one.

Source: derived from vendor data.

After a flat FY-2026, the modeled top line reaccelerates

The consensus path is not a straight line. Revenue is modeled essentially flat in FY-2026 (-0.2% on the mean), then reaccelerates to +4.8% in FY-2027 and +6.8% in FY-2028. The dispersion around the level is narrow — brokers agree on where revenue lands even where they disagree on what drives it — so the debate is about composition, not the headline.

Source: derived from vendor data.

International, not the US, is the modeled growth engine

Underneath the flat headline, the two geographies pull in opposite directions. International service revenue is modeled to compound about 10% a year — +9.8%, +11.1%, then +8.1% — while US service revenue actually dips in FY-2026 (-2.1%) and grows only low-single-digits thereafter (+3.3%, +6.0%). International is roughly a seventh of service revenue today, but it is where essentially all of the modeled service growth comes from.

Source: derived from vendor data.

The FY-2026 stall was fewer cars, not weaker pricing

The single broker who models units splits the flat service line cleanly: volume falls about 6% in FY-2026 (roughly 4.4 million cars versus 4.7 million), while revenue per car rises 7.5% to about $902. In FY-2027 that reverses only slightly — volume edges up 1.0% and revenue per car climbs another 4.0% to about $939. The read is that Copart is holding revenue through price and mix as auction volumes soften.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Service auctions are the profit; vehicle sales add scale, not margin

Copart books two very different lines. Service auctions are the whole profit story — the models put service gross profit near $2.0B a year. Vehicle sales, though several hundred million in revenue, contribute a sliver of gross profit: about $77M in FY-2026, rising toward $91M by FY-2028. In other words, the low-margin principal-purchase line adds top-line scale but almost nothing to the bottom line, which is why the service growth story above is what matters for value.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Earnings grind higher; free cash flow is the real disagreement

Profitability is the settled part of the model. EBITDA rises +6.7% then +7.3%, operating income advances at a similar clip, and operating margin holds in a tight 36% to 37% band throughout — so the margin structure is not where the debate lives.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Free cash flow is where the two brokers who model it part ways. After rising about 12% in FY-2026, free cash flow is modeled to fall roughly 8% in FY-2027 even as earnings keep climbing — a rare down year for cash, and the range is wide: the low and high models sit far apart, from a floor near the FY-2026 level to a new high. On a per-share basis that is $1.20 in FY-2025, $1.31 in FY-2026 and back to $1.27 in FY-2027.

Source: derived from vendor data.

Headline P&L consensus, momentum and beat/miss live in the CapIQ tab.